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Talk · Prediction markets · Info finance

Betting on the truth?

How a price becomes a prediction. And what it knows that you don't.

Prediction markets turn opinions into prices, and prices into probabilities. In one hour we see how that works, where it is heading, and where it breaks.

What we'll cover

  1. 01Why a price can be read as a probability, and who sells you the contract
  2. 02Does it work? From the 2024 US election to calibration
  3. 03What info finance could become: science, judgment, AI
  4. 04Where it breaks: manipulation, insiders, and who decides who won